You are here

US’ plan to isolate Iran

Nov 19,2017 - Last updated at Nov 19,2017

The resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri two weeks ago is an indicator of a potential local escalation with Hizbollah and regional escalation with Iran.

The expectation of an imminent escalation with Hizbollah has been there for months, as the end of the crisis in Syria was likely to turn regional focus to the Iranian-backed group.

Over a decade ago, in 2005, there was a similar escalation after the assassination of Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, Saad’s father, which culminated in the war against Hizbollah, in 2006. Back then, Iran was much weaker and less influential, and the US had more political capital and more resources in the region.

Last week’s escalation is part of a plan that began around 12 months ago with closer ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as between Saudi Arabia and the US.

Iran’s influence in the region has increased, especially in Iraq, and it appears it maintains some influence in Syria. 

Moreover, a new influential protagonist in the region, Russia, which is having a strong presence in Syria, is, for now, protecting Iranian interests.

Hizbollah is not as weak as some would suggest. 

While it suffered during the Syrian crisis at all levels, having witnessed depleted human resources, social and economic influence, it also shifted its strategy from being a local party to a regional protagonist.

Hizbollah has suffered financially due to American sanctions; its ability to move in certain areas was also curtailed, but the party has developed new skills and capabilities, turning into a potentially tough and dangerous enemy.

Israel is clearly interested in confronting Hizbollah, but not in an open confrontation yet. The intelligence war is still sufficient for Israel, and could show Israel’s concerns with the progress the Lebanese party has made.

Hizbollah has been expecting the focus to be placed on its activities and power following any resolution in Syria, and as such, has launched an internal propaganda programme promoting the coming battle as Armageddon and preparing its believers for it.

The US and its allies launched a strategy to isolate Iran, but they must ensure its long-term viability with a clear and substantial roadmap in order to prevent clever and influential Iran from turning the outcome to its advantage, as it did in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.

The US and its allies must be careful and strategic, otherwise the US’ regional allies will pay the price of any failure.

amersabaileh@yahoo.com

up
132 users have voted.

Comments

CAN THE REGION EVER GET TIRED OF BEATING THE DRUM OF WARS?. IRAN MAY NOT BE A GOOD ACTOR BUT SO ARE EVERY COUNTRY IN THAT REGION AND BEYOND. IT COULD BE RECALLED THAT RECENTLY THAT IRAN HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF MODERATION AND PLAYING A PARALLEL CARDS SIMILAR TO OURS AND OTHER WESTERN COUNTRIES. DO WE WANT TO BLUNT THIS OR ENCOURAGE IRAN TO JOIN THE COMMUNITY OF NATIONS IN BUILDING A SAFFER WORLD OR GET BACK TO ITS SHELLS OF ISOLATION?. ONE THING IS CERTAIN AND THAT IS THAT NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION AND ANY INVENTION SECONDARY TO THIS MAY LEAD TO THE UN-INTENDED CONSIQUENCIES. SOMEONE SHOULD BLINK FOR THE SAKE OF PEACE AND STABILITY. SOME ONE BETTER PRODUCE CURRENT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Add new comment

CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
10 + 0 =
Solve this simple math problem and enter the result. E.g. for 1+3, enter 4.

Newsletter

Get top stories and blog posts emailed to you each day.